The Refinery Route as Compliance Bridge: Case Study German THG Quotas

The Refinery Route as Compliance Bridge,
and what’s Beyond: Case Study German THG Quotas

Germany is currently transposing RED III into national law, introducing a binding RFNBO sub-quota for all transport sectors via the THG Quota (THG-Quote). In refineries, process green hydrogen is allocated across the entire product slate on an energy basis, meaning that fulfilling ReFuelEU Aviation obligations necessarily generates RFNBO volumes across the broader transport fuel slate. Green H₂ substitution in German refineries can therefore fulfil combined THG and ReFuelEU obligations simultaneously up to the technical limit of process (“Intermediate”) hydrogen for hydrogenation and desulphurization. Based on Eurostat Data and this calculation this limit lays around 7.5 TWh RFNBO demand. Beyond that ceiling, and for e-SAF specifically due to net kerosene imports, real purpose-built RFNBO production becomes unavoidable.

ReFuelEU Aviation and German THG in Refineries: Limits of the Refinery Route

e-SAF covered by Refinery (stacked WtP ²: ReFuelEU + THG) ¹

e-SAF overfulfillment

All Transport Sectors: THG quota obligation

Transport overfulfillment

Refinery ceiling (7.52 TWh · 1,771 MW)

ReFuelEU Aviation: Real e-SAF Still Required Beyond the Refinery Route

Covered by Refinery

Real RFNBO required: €47/kg H₂e · ~128 MW

THG RFNBO Sub-Quota 1.2%

Below 0.5%: THG not implemented scenario

THG RFNBO Penalty €14.4/kg

Draft law: €120/GJ = €14.4/kg H₂e · range €5–€50/kg · ReFuelEU fixed at €47/kg

Key Metrics Snapshot 2030 · based on Eurostat 2024 Data

e-SAF Obligation ¹

—

1.2% × 108,070 GWh gross avail.

All Transport RFNBO Obligation

—

road obligation + e-SAF obligation

— GW · 55 kWh/kg · 80% load

Refinery Route Ceiling

7.52 TWh

9.4 TWh theoretical · 80% · 1,771 MW

Electrolysis Capacity for e-SAF Obligation ³ 55 kWh/kg · 80% load · Fixed

Total e-SAF Electrolysis

Total

—

Refinery Route

Covered

—

TWh

—

TWh

Beyond Refinery Route

Physical

—

TWh

—

TWh

THG Quota Obligation (Road) ³ 55 kWh/kg · 80% load · Updates with slider

Total Road Obligation

Total

—

Refinery Route

Covered

—

TWh

—

TWh

Beyond Refinery Route

Physical

—

TWh

—

TWh

Physical RFNBO Required Beyond Refinery Route Updates with slider

Road beyond ceiling

—

— GW

TWh/yr · 55 kWh/kg · 80% load

e-SAF gap (fixed) ¹

—

— GW

TWh/yr · €47/kg H₂e · 55 kWh/kg · 80% load

Total real RFNBO needed

—

— GW

TWh/yr · GW physical beyond refinery route

Source: Eurostat nrg_bal_c + Energy Balances Germany 2024 · Snapshot: 2030 regulatory targets applied to 2024 fuel consumption baseline · H₂ ceiling: 9.4 TWh (89 Mt crude · 40k Nm³/h per 10 Mtpa) · 80% load · Electrolysis: 55 MWh/kg H₂ · Slate: 10% kerosene · 77% road (simplified, petchem excl. from WtP) · WtP stacked = 0.10×€47 + 0.77×THG slider · Thresholds: 5.79 TWh (overfulfil ends) / 7.52 TWh (ceiling exhausted) · German Cabinet draft Dec 2025 · Note: EU ETS I carbon price not considered. Analysis covers RFNBO mandate compliance costs only. · ¹ ReFuelEU Aviation e-SAF sub-quota: 1.2% of gross available jet fuel (2030 target per Regulation EU 2023/2405; directly applicable, no national transposition required). · ³ Petchem / LPG slate (~13% of refinery H₂) excluded from both WtP and obligation split. Refinery Route column sums road slate (77%) + kerosene slate (10%) = 87% of 7.52 TWh ceiling. Remaining 13% not penalised under current regulation. · ² WtP methodology: until e-SAF obligation is met, every MWh of green H₂ into the refinery earns both penalties simultaneously. WtP (stacked) = (kerosene slate share × ReFuelEU penalty) + (road slate share × THG penalty) = (0.10 × €47) + (0.77 × THG slider). After refinery ceiling (5.79 TWh road credit exhausted), WtP drops to THG penalty only. Petchem / LPG slate not penalised; excluded from WtP calculation.

The Refinery Route as Compliance Bridge,and what’s Beyond: Case Study German THG Quotas

The Refinery Route as Compliance Bridge,
and what’s Beyond: Case Study German THG Quotas